SunSirs: ABS Consolidated Weakly in Mid-august

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 23,2024

The domestic ABS market consolidated weakly in mid-August, and the spot prices of most brands were stable with small fluctuations. According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Sino, as of August 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 12,050 RMB/ton, up or down +0.42% from the price level on August 1.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid-August, the load of the domestic ABS industry increased slightly by 1.3% compared with the previous period, and the overall operating rate was about 67%. Previously, due to the decline in raw material prices, the profitability of the polymerization plant improved slightly, and some companies increased their load. Within the interval, the load of Lihua Yilijin increased, and the load of Tianjin Dagu fell and then adjusted, and the total output within ten days increased slightly compared with the previous period. At the same time, the overall shipment of manufacturers was general, and inventory continued to accumulate. On the whole, the current supply-side support for ABS spot prices is general, and Jilin Petrochemical and other companies have plans to stop production in the future. In the short term, the supply pressure may fluctuate in a narrow range and be generally stable.

Cost factors: In mid-August, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS was weak, and the support for the cost side of ABS was weakened. Among them, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has continued to fall for more than three months, and there is still no clear sign of bottoming out. Oversupply is the fundamental factor leading to the decline in acrylonitrile prices. Since some large acrylonitrile manufacturers have considerable profits from co-producing MMA products, the production of acrylonitrile units can be maintained. The market supply side remains ample, coupled with the sluggish upstream propylene market, the industry is mostly bearish on the future market.

In mid-August, the butadiene market fluctuated narrowly, and some companies in Shandong Province suspended their export plans within ten days, leading to a slight recovery in market quotations in East China. However, some ships will arrive in East China later, which may increase supply pressure. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is obviously weak, and synthetic rubber companies have always maintained rigid demand to replenish inventory due to the decline in profits. At present, the supply and demand of the butadiene market are weak, and it is expected that it will remain stable and weak in the short term.

In mid-August, the styrene market consolidated its trend. The price of pure benzene fell narrowly, and the cost support was poor. On the supply side, port inventories have increased, and downstream spot demand is just needed to take goods, and supply and demand are generally balanced. However, there were many styrene units under maintenance in the early stage, and there may be an expectation of increased supply after the resumption of work in the future. It is expected that the styrene market may continue to run smoothly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation in the future.

On the demand side: Since August, the main terminal demand for ABS has not improved. In the middle of the month, some home appliance manufacturers still maintain high-temperature holidays, and the overall load position of downstream factories is relatively low. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the stocking operation is mainly weak and just. Traders follow the market, and the circulation speed of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side does not help the market well.

Forecast for the future market

In mid-August, the domestic ABS price trend will remain flat and weaken. The upstream three materials are mainly sorted, and the support for the ABS cost side is general. The load of the ABS polymerization plant in the interval is stable and slightly increased, and the weak just demand situation on the demand side continues, and the market has not yet left the off-season market. Social inventory has increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not eased. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak market in the short term.

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