SunSirs: China MTBE Market is Weak and Volatile

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 26,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from August 16th to 23rd, MTBE prices fell from 6,487 RMB/ton to 6,162 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.01% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 9.17%, and a year-on-year drop of 19.71%. Due to the abundant supply of MTBE resources and the lack of export support, the overall domestic MTBE market has experienced a significant decline.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: the ongoing Israeli Palestinian peace talks have temporarily eased the situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about poor demand prospects and the risk of economic recession in the United States have only increased. As of August 22nd, the Brent crude oil benchmark price of SunSirs is $76.05 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, as the summer season draws to a close, the frequency of private car trips by the public has decreased, and retail gas station shipments have stabilized. Most gas station merchants purchase on demand, maintaining a median inventory operation, and operators may purchase MTBE on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Dongfang Hongye, Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant, and Haite Weiye all have maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on August 22, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $15/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $730.49-732.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $3.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $861.74-862.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $13.74 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $875.14-875.49 per ton (246.52-246.62 cents per gallon).

In the short term, the overall supply pressure in China is relatively high, and with weak demand, manufacturers can only reduce prices and promote sales. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to be weak in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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