SunSirs: Continued Decline for 3 Months, Lithium Carbonate May Face Capacity Elimination

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 26,2024 SunSirs

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, lithium carbonate continued to decline at the end of August. On August 23rd, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.93% compared to the average price of 89,600 RMB/ton on August 1st. On August 23rd, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 84,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.16% compared to the average price of 92,200 RMB/ton on August 1st.

Analysis review

It is worth noting that although the spot market continued to decline, lithium carbonate futures rebounded strongly this week (08.19-08.23), rising strongly for three consecutive trading days, and the spot trading atmosphere had also improved accordingly.

Supply side: Mines had no plans to reduce production, and the rebound in futures prices will stimulate smelters' enthusiasm for hedging production. Recently, some low-grade lithium mines from Africa had arrived at ports one after another, and the pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse.

On the demand side: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from August 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 274,000 units, a significant increase of 57% year-on-year and a month on month growth rate of 25%. Since 2024, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 5.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. With the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium carbonate will also rise.

Market outlook

The lithium carbonate analyst from SunSirs believes that there was obvious pressure of excess in the lithium carbonate market, but the futures market was rising and demand was increasing. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will remain in a wait-and-see situation and maintain a low consolidation.

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