SunSirs: Sluggish Demand, the Trend of the China Refined Oil Market in August is declining

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 02,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestically refined gasoline and diesel has declined. As of the end of the month, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,303 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.57%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,013 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.03% in price.

Cost surface: Crude oil fluctuates within the range, and the cost surface remains stable

As of the 29th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.82 per barrel. The overall trend of crude oil in August was mainly volatile, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affected the trend of the crude oil market. The tense situation boosted the confidence of the crude oil market. Due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the gradual end of the US oil peak season, the overall crude oil market fluctuated within a certain range, and the domestic refined oil market remained sluggish.

Supply side: Refinery starts production, increases supply side

In August, some maintenance facilities in Shandong were restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was around 58%, while the national operating rate was around 65%. The operating rate of local refineries has increased compared to before, and the supply of refined oil has increased. The trend of local refinery gasoline and diesel market has declined.

Demand side: Gasoline demand is generally low, while diesel demand is sluggish

In terms of gasoline, with the gradual opening of summer tourism and the maintenance of high temperatures, the use of car air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. Intermediaries can replenish their inventory as needed, but the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market has fluctuated and fallen. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, the high temperature and heavy rain have affected the start of outdoor projects, and there has been no improvement; Agricultural diesel has come to an end, and coupled with the impact of fishing bans in some northern waters, the consumption of diesel market resources is slow. Traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory in the diesel market and a downward trend in diesel prices.

Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, with the traditional peak season in the United States coming to an end, coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, and the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant. The demand for gasoline is still acceptable, but the impact on new energy cannot be underestimated. In addition, some manufacturers have promotional activities near the end of the month, resulting in low fluctuations in gasoline market prices; In terms of diesel demand, although the traditional peak season for demand in Jinjiu is approaching, the cautious wait-and-see sentiment has significantly increased. Traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market continues to be sluggish in the short term.

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