SunSirs: China BR Market first Fell and then Rose in August

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 02,2024 SunSirs

Since August, the BR market has experienced a decline followed by an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 30th, the BR market price in East China was 15,370 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.22% from 14,890 RMB/ton at the beginning of August, with a low point of 14,500 RMB/ton during the cycle. The price of raw material butadiene first fell and then rose, and the cost side drove the price of BR to first fall and then rise; Shunding rubber maintains a low level in the early stage of construction and restarts more units at the end of the month; Downstream tire production has recently risen, providing strong support for the demand for BR. At the end of the month, the supply price of Shunding rubber has gradually increased. As of August 30th, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding by PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 15,200 RMB/ton.

Since August, the price of butadiene has first fallen and then risen, and the cost of BR has fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 30th, the price of butadiene was 12,925 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.07% from 12,662 RMB/ton at the beginning of August, and the low point during the cycle was 12,400 RMB/ton.

Demand side: Since mid August, downstream tire production has been on the rise, and in the short term, demand will have some support for the BR market. As of August 30th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 58%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise again, and the cost center of BR will increase; At the end of the month, multiple sets of BR equipment were restarted, and the expected increase in supply in the later period; Currently, downstream tire companies are operating steadily with a slight increase in production, providing essential support for the demand for BR. Overall, the BR market is expected to experience high volatility in the short term.

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