SunSirs: Downstream Demand was Weak, China ABS Market was under Pressure in August

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 03,2024 SunSirs

The domestic ABS market in August showed weak consolidation, with spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,712.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of -2.40% compared to the price level on August 1st.

In terms of supply: Throughout August, the domestic ABS industry experienced high and stable loads with small fluctuations, and the level of enterprise maintenance and resumption of work was comparable. Raw material prices have fallen, and the profitability of polymerization plants has slightly improved in the first half of the month. Enterprises such as Tianjin Dagu and Zhejiang Petrochemical have seen a slight increase in their load. The increase in supply has led to an overall increase in inventory, causing manufacturers to immediately adjust their load. In addition, Liaotong Chemical has gradually stopped maintenance, and the domestic industry's operating rate has remained stable at around 65%. The overall shipment situation of manufacturers remains unchanged, with some factory prices lowered. Zhangzhou Qimei still has maintenance plans in the future. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

In terms of cost: In August, the overall trend of the upstream three materials of ABS first fell and then rebounded, which shifted the support for ABS cost side from weak to repair. The acrylonitrile market is experiencing fluctuations. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene declined, resulting in insufficient on-site consumption and ample supply. Many industry players were bearish on the future market, leading to a decrease in transaction prices. The benefits of reducing the load and production of acrylonitrile plant equipment are gradually emerging, and there is a price rebound due to reluctance to sell in the southern region of China in the middle of the month, which supports the market mentality. The unplanned shutdown of the Jieyang plant in Jihua in the latter half of the month, coupled with the release of some external procurement demand and the approaching end of the month, has led to a low enthusiasm for spot sales among intermediaries, thus pushing up the focus of local negotiations.

The butadiene market rose after consolidation in August. In the first and second half of the year, the market continued to weaken, and downstream market demand remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance was weak, dragging down market quotes. In the latter half of the year, supply in some areas of Shandong and Jiangsu tightened, and holders showed strong reluctance to sell. Prices continued to rise, and as the price difference between the north and south gradually widened, it drove the East China market to heat up. In addition, with the increasing demand for synthetic rubber, the market momentum has been boosted and heated up. Boosted by favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will have a strong trend in early September, and downstream transactions will be the focus of attention in the future.

The overall styrene market fluctuated in August. The price of pure benzene is consolidating at a low level, with poor cost support. However, the spot demand for styrene is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the market lacks upward momentum. However, in the first half of the month, there were more inspections of the styrene plant, and at the same time, the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased. There was a struggle between long and short positions in the market, making it difficult to drive the market. It is expected that the future market will still be dominated by volatile consolidation.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand for ABS in August is still in the off-season. The high temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers is expected to last until the end of this month, and as a result, the overall load position of downstream factories is relatively low. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the stocking operation is mainly based on weak demand. Traders follow the market and the flow of goods is relatively slow. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

The domestic ABS price trend in August was relatively soft. The three upstream materials have experienced fluctuations, which initially weakened the comprehensive support for ABS cost side and then repaired it. During the month, the load of ABS polymerization plant remained stable with small fluctuations, and the weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continued. Market trading remained at the off-season level. The social inventory has increased, and the supply-demand contradiction has not eased. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the signals of consumer activation during the peak season in the future.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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