SunSirs: China MTBE Market is Weak and Volatile

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 09,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 2nd to 5th, MTBE prices fell from 6,110 RMB/ton to 5,975 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.21% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.15%, and a year-on-year drop of 24.61%. The international crude oil market is increasingly concerned about weak global demand, with international oil prices falling to the lowest point of the year. At the same time, rigid demand for gasoline is gradually declining with the end of summer vacation. In addition, the negative impact of the decline in crude oil prices has increased the price drop. MTBE, as a gasoline raw material, cannot escape the downward trend. Although some manufacturers have reduced their production, the situation of MTBE oversupply is still evident, and the overall domestic MTBE market trend is clearly declining.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: the market's concerns about the economic and demand prospects continue to ferment, and the problem of Libyan crude oil supply disruptions is expected to recover. As of September 5th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.69 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, terminal demand has weakened after the end of summer, and retail gas station shipments have returned to stability. Gas station merchants mostly maintain median inventory for procurement and sales, and large orders are not easy to transact. Operators may purchase MTBE or maintain small orders on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side: Some manufacturers have reduced their production, the Haierxi plant in Henan has started production normally, the Huabang plant in Guangrao is temporarily shut down, the Dechen Energy plant is shut down, and the Chengtai plant in Shandong will resume work at the end of the week. There is an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on September 5th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $6.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $700.99-702.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $835.49-835.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $12.78 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $832.57-832.93 per ton (234.53-234.63 cents per gallon).

In the future forecast, due to the continuous poor shipments from manufacturers, inventory has accumulated, and the positive support for demand is limited. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.

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