SunSirs: China Methanol Market is Experiencing a Narrow Decline

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 09,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2,460 RMB/ton to 2,385 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 3.02% during the period, a month on month decline of 3.64%, and a year-on-year decline of 6.10%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline, with a weak macro outlook. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventories have accumulated. In addition, some downstream markets are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.

As of the close on September 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,384 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,398 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,368 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,371 RMB/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 13 RMB/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 635,388 lots and a holding volume of 788,828 lots, with a daily increase of 16,863.

In terms of cost, most coal mines maintain normal production and sales. At the end of last month, coal mines that were shut down due to completing monthly tasks gradually resumed normal production, and the overall coal supply level has rebounded. Some private mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales, with a range of 10-20 RMB/ton, and there is no significant fluctuation in the overall price focus. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

In terms of demand, downstream acetic acid: Tianjian and Longyu have recovery expectations, and the demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Hengxin plant restarts operation, increasing demand for formaldehyde; Downstream chloride: The maintenance plan for the East China plant has reduced the demand for chloride; Downstream dimethyl ether: Lankao Huitong plant starts operation, Jiujiang Xinlian plant stops operation, resulting in reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: The Shandong Chengtai plant has started operation, leading to an increase in MTBE demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

In terms of supply, maintenance of Jinneng Technology and Yangmei Fengxi equipment; Xinjiang's new industrial facilities have reduced production; Shandong Mingshui, Jinfeng Wenxi, Inner Mongolia Xinao, Chongqing Kabele, Shanxi Lubao, and Northwest Energy Plant restoration. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 5th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 341.00-342.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be loose, and although traditional downstream production has increased, the magnitude is limited, which will have a certain drag on the market. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate weakly.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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