SunSirs: The Price of Wood Pulp first Rises and then Falls in China, and the Short-term Supply-demand Game Continues

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 09,2024 SunSirs

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both showed a trend of first rising and then falling last week. On September 6th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,200 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the average price of 6,250 RMB/ton on September 1st. On September 6th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,900 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on September 1st.

On the supply side: The recent strike in Canada has ended, and overseas pulp mill quotations have significantly decreased. With the weakening of external demand, the supply of pulp mills to China may increase in the future, and there is a possibility of a rebound in domestic import volume in the future. In August, the domestic wood pulp production was 1,944,900 tons, an increase of 204,500 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 11.75%. Therefore, the supply of wood pulp in September was relatively sufficient.

On the demand side: After the downward impact of pulp prices from May to July, the profit margin of downstream raw paper has improved, and purchasing sentiment has increased. The marginal repair of factory pulp consumption has driven pulp prices to stabilize and rise. However, due to the subsequent decline in pulp futures and limited volume of terminal orders in the raw paper market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and there was no clear intention to concentrate on incremental replenishment in the market, resulting in a shift in wood pulp prices from rising to falling.

Domestic port data: Last week, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China maintained a cumulative trend. As of September 5, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.903 million tons, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.191 million tons, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 569,000 tons, an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous period.

In terms of futures, pulp futures prices have continued to fluctuate. As of September 6th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,860 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,816 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,866 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.45%. The trading volume was 311,700 lots, and the position was 156,127 lots.

The wood pulp analyst of SunSirs believes that the current profitability of downstream enterprises in China is still in a sluggish state, and downstream paper mills mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage. In September, with the traditional peak season of the domestic paper industry, downstream paper mills showed marginal improvement in production and sales. However, the continuous accumulation of port inventory has increased the pressure on wood pulp supply, and it is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will continue to be in a supply-demand game.

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