SunSirs: China MTBE Market Continues to be Weak

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 14,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 9th to 13th, MTBE prices fell from 5,885 RMB/ton to 5,790 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.61% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 11.43%, and a year-on-year drop of 27.28%. International crude oil has fallen to its lowest point in over two years, and the gasoline market has also shown a clear downward trend. Industry players have shown poor enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials, and the MTBE market cannot escape the downward trend. The market has intensified its decline, with all regions in China falling below the 6,000 mark. The international MTBE market trend is weak, exports continue to fail to advance, domestic supply surplus pressure persists, and price wars persist.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The main negative factors are poor US employment data combined with weak Asian crude oil consumption, and OPEC and EIA have successively lowered their global crude oil demand growth forecasts. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.97 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures prices have frequently fallen, and the refined oil market has weakened and declined. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but terminal demand generally leads to slow digestion of inventory by social units. In addition to consuming inventory, middle and downstream businesses purchase according to demand, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side: Dongying Shenchi has a shutdown plan and resource supply is expected to be reduced. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on September 12th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $8/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $714.99-716.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $24.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $782.49-782.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $42.85/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $829.27-829.63/ton (233.60-233.70 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the substantial positive support on the demand side is limited, and MTBE still faces resistance. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to be weak in the short term.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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