SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Pirce Fell from a high level, or may be Weak and Stable in the Short Term

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 14,2024 SunSirs

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of coniferous wood pulp and broad-leaved wood pulp have both shown a downward trend this week. On September 13th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the average price of 6,200 RMB/ton on September 8th. On September 13th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,854 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to the average price of 4,900 RMB/ton on September 8th.

On the supply side: Recently, two rounds of overseas pulp mill quotations have significantly decreased, and European port inventories in July have slightly accumulated compared to the previous month. With the weakening of external demand, the future supply of pulp factories to China may increase, and there is a possibility of a rebound in domestic import volume in the future. However, the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the increase in market pulp supply have suppressed pulp prices, leading to a downward pressure on pulp prices.

On the demand side: The profitability of domestic downstream enterprises is still in a sluggish state, and downstream paper mills mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage. The game situation between supply and demand remains unchanged. However, there has been no significant increase in demand in the terminal market, and the inventory of raw paper has generally accumulated, resulting in significant production and sales pressure, making it difficult to provide positive support for pulp production for the time being.

Domestic port data: This week, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China has shifted from cumulative to destocking. As of September 12, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.878 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.152 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port is 580,000 tons, an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous period.

The pulp futures contract experienced a sharp drop this week, maintaining overall volatility and weakening, leading to a decline in the spot market and average trading. As of September 13th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,658 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,666 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,706 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07%. The trading volume was 250,800 lots, and the position was 158,256 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the overall macro atmosphere in China is weak, and pulp futures are showing a technical breakthrough decline, resulting in weak spot prices for wood pulp. In addition, due to the weak demand for some paper types in the raw paper industry during the peak season, the actual improvement in demand may be limited. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will operate weakly and steadily

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