SunSirs: Cost Side Fluctuated, China PP Market was Weak and Volatile in Mid September

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 19,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the PP market in mid September showed weak consolidation, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 18th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7,628.57 RMB/ton, with a decrease of -2.02% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials: In terms of international crude oil, the peak oil season in the United States ended at the end of August, and the current market continues to operate at low oil prices, with weak upstream support for PP in the far end. However, with oil prices hitting a new low in the range and OPEC+ delaying production plans, there are still opportunities for a rebound in the future. The propylene sector has also been dragged down and weakened, coupled with poor shipment performance and limited improvement in market momentum, leading to increased wait-and-see sentiment in the near future. The price of propane is mainly sideways, while the domestic supply of methanol has recovered, with a narrow decline. The cost support for PDH and methanol to PP production is stable but weak. Overall, there was no improvement in the support of PP by various raw materials in mid September.

In terms of supply: In the middle of the month, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the pattern of large stability and small increase in the early stage, and the industry load narrowly increased to around 76% within ten days. The maintenance of enterprise equipment and resumption of work are intertwined, with Ningbo Jinfa Second Line stopping and Zhejiang Petrochemical and Dongguan JuzhengRMB resuming work. The production within ten days has increased compared to the beginning of the month, and the overall supply has shown an upward trend. At present, the commercial inventory of PP in China is stable at over 730,000 tons, with abundant supply and some accumulation. Some enterprises in the southern region of China have maintenance plans in the future, and there is an expectation of narrow supply contraction. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand: The heating rate of PP demand side in mid September is relatively slow. The load on terminal enterprises has increased, and the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement has increased. The willingness of plastic weaving enterprises to build warehouses has also increased. At the same time, film companies and injection molding orders have to some extent followed up due to the holiday economy. However, the low sentiment in the macro commodity market may affect the confidence of industry players in the peak season market this year. The demand side has increased its support for PP spot goods.

In mid September, the domestic PP market prices were weak. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP has weakened, and the consumption during peak season has slightly increased. However, under the influence of macroeconomic and upstream weakness, the current market guidance is not sufficient. As the National Day holiday approaches in the latter half of the year, there are expectations of support from holiday economy and policy orientation in the market, which is expected to alleviate downward pressure on PP prices.

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