SunSirs: China MTBE Market Experienced a Unilateral Decline in September, 2024

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 08,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is experiencing a unilateral downward trend. From September 1st to 30th, MTBE prices fell from 6,170 RMB/ton to 5,437 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 11.87% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 33.38%.

Export orders are scarce, and some manufacturers have temporarily suspended production and immediately resumed work, while some large facilities that were previously suspended have resumed work. The domestic supply pressure is too great, and gasoline consumption gradually weakens with the end of summer. The enthusiasm of industry players for gasoline raw material procurement is not good, coupled with the continuous decline in crude oil closing, the MTBE market in September showed a significant decline, with prices mainly fluctuating downwards.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in September, and market concerns about weak global demand intensified in the first half of the year. Saudi Arabia holds a bearish view on the demand outlook in Asia, and coupled with OPEC's monthly report lowering its forecast for global crude oil demand growth, international oil prices have fallen. The mid month hurricane temporarily suspended some crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region of the United States, and the Federal Reserve officially began to cut interest rates. In addition, the tense atmosphere in the Middle East has heated up, and international oil prices have risen. The market remains concerned about the demand outlook in the latter half of the year, and Libyan crude oil supply is expected to continue to recover. Saudi Arabia intends to increase production as planned from December, causing a decline in international oil prices.

On the demand side, the gasoline terminal and finished oil market continue to be weak, and refinery oil prices frequently decline. The main reason is that insufficient terminal demand leads to slow digestion of inventory by social units, and middle and downstream businesses have conservative purchasing operations, with market transactions mainly based on small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, Shenghong Refining and Chemical has started construction of new facilities, while Debao Road, Shenchi, and Chengtai facilities have been shut down. However, the start of the Huntsman facility continues to affect production, resulting in an increase in facility operating rates. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of external trading, on August 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market decreased by $1.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $719.99-721.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $4.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $840.99-841.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $2.77/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $887.56-887.92/ton (250.02-250.12 cents/gallon).

During the National Day holiday, transactions may be relatively limited due to restrictions on the use of hazardous chemicals on highways. Downstream businesses will moderately replenish their inventory after the holiday, and transactions may gradually become active. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

 Print  |    add to Favorites  |    Close