SunSirs: China MTBE Market Downturns

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 14,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 8th to 12th, MTBE prices fell from 5,875 RMB/ton to 5,562 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.32% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.01%, and a year-on-year drop of 28.57%. After the holiday, the MTBE market situation fell again, and the conflict between Iran and Israel did not escalate further. International crude oil closed down, and some manufacturers who had planned to shut down in the early stage still did not shut down, and some manufacturers started production. The supply of resources further increased, while gasoline demand gradually weakened, causing the MTBE market price to fluctuate and fall.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, mainly due to the easing of tensions between Iran and Israel, the downgrading of demand growth forecasts by the US Energy Information Administration, and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of October 11th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.04 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures first rose and then fell, and the refined oil market rose accordingly. Refineries took advantage of the rebound of crude oil to push up oil prices. However, during the holiday period, poor road transportation suppressed downstream purchases, and the decline in crude oil prices after the holiday made the purchasing intentions of middle and downstream merchants weak, resulting in a flat market trading atmosphere. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant has a plan to start production, and the shutdown time of Shandong Yuhuang is currently uncertain. It is expected that there will be a narrow increase in resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on October 11th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $14.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $780.49-782.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $29.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $899.74-900.24 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $42.96 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $838.87-839.22 per ton (236.86-236.96 cents per gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that the supply of MTBE resources will increase slightly, but the demand for gasoline will weaken. In addition, due to the continuous poor shipment in the early stage and the accumulation of manufacturer inventory, MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will still be weak in the short term.

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