SunSirs: Merchants Offer Discounts and Take Orders, with Weak China PC consolidation in Late November

https://www.chemnet.com   Nov 27,2024 SunSirs

According to the bulk ranking data from SunSirs, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a low level in late November, with most spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly and falling slightly. As of November 26th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15,900 RMB/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.62% compared to early November.

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has slightly decreased, and companies such as Jiaxing Emperor have entered maintenance one after another. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from 77% in the middle to around 75%. The weekly production of PC has also fallen from the ultra-high level of over 60,000 tons in the medium and long term to below 60,000 tons. But the on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the supply-demand mismatch pattern remains unchanged. Good news on the supply side is difficult to achieve, with high inventory causing manufacturers to be unable to raise prices, and low ex factory pricing resulting in a stalemate. At the same time, there is an expectation of resumption of work in the future, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the horizontal trend of domestic bisphenol A prices continued in late November. In the early stage, some companies conducted maintenance and the upstream phenol cargo was delayed in arriving at the port. Although there were some positive news in terms of supply and cost, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks were average. In addition, the acetone market has stabilized, and overall, there is a long short confrontation in the current bisphenol A market, with a balanced operation. Bisphenol A has limited impact on the cost support of PC.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in the previous period, with the logic of weak rigid demand procurement in the market. Industry players tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, while downstream factories purchase goods to maintain production. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The overall inventory in China is high, and merchants have increased their price reduction and order placement operations, making it difficult for the demand side to form strong support for PC spot prices.

The PC market trend in late November was generally weak. The upstream bisphenol A market is generally flat, and the support for PC cost side remains basically unchanged. Recently, the load of domestic aggregation plants has continued to decrease slightly, and there will be more restarts than maintenance in the short term, leading to relaxed supply expectations. At the same time, the industry's inventory is high, and supply pressure remains high. The downstream weak rigid demand stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. The price of PC has fallen below the low point of the year, but the profound mismatch between supply and demand cannot be alleviated in the short term. Therefore, SunSirs predicts that the PC market may still show signs of fatigue in the future.

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