SunSirs: Demand is Difficult to Exceed Expectations, China Thermal Coal Price in Northern Ports is Declining

https://www.chemnet.com   Dec 05,2024 SunSirs

Market dynamics

Price performance: On December 4th, the market price of thermal coal (non power plant flow) in northern ports was 825 RMB/ton for 5,500CV, 725 RMB/ton for 5,000CV, and 634 RMB/ton for 4,500CV.

Yesterday (December 3rd), the average transaction price of Q5,000 in Beigang was between 716-720 RMB/ton, indicating that the actual transaction center continued to shift downward under weak demand.

Inventory situation: As of December 3rd, the inventory of the eight ports around the Bohai Sea was 27.731 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous day. Despite a decrease in inventory, it remains at a high level, putting pressure on market prices.

Market sentiment: The bearish sentiment in the market continues to ferment, and the limited release of end-user purchasing demand leads to a large room for price negotiation.

Future Trends

Continued downward trend: In the short term, the Beigang thermal coal market will continue its downward trend. This is mainly due to insufficient demand in the context of high inventory, as well as the cautious attitude of market participants.

Market focus: Port destocking situation: The reduction of inventory will help alleviate market pressure, but destocking speed will become a key factor affecting market prices.

Downstream delivery price: The expected purchase price of downstream users will directly affect the actual transaction price of thermal coal.

Market influencing factors:

Supply and demand relationship: The supply-demand balance in the thermal coal market will continue to affect price trends. If demand continues to be sluggish, downward pressure on prices will further increase.

Transportation costs: Changes in transportation costs may also have an impact on the price of thermal coal. For example, the scarcity of new cargo pallets in the maritime market may lead to fluctuations in freight rates, which in turn may affect the arrival cost of thermal coal.

International energy market prices: Fluctuations in international thermal coal prices may also be transmitted to the domestic market through import and export trade, affecting prices.

In summary, on December 4th, the power coal market in Beigang showed a weak operating trend, and prices continued to decline. The future market trend will be influenced by various factors such as port destocking, downstream receiving prices, supply and demand relationships, transportation costs, and international energy market prices. Investors and practitioners should closely monitor market trends in order to make informed decisions.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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