According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, since June, the spot price of natural rubber in China has first risen and then fell, and then surged and fell back. As of June 18th, the spot rubber price in China's natural rubber market was around 14,502 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 14,710 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 15,071 RMB/ton. Since June, the natural rubber futures market has fluctuated widely. At the beginning of the month, the Shanghai rubber 09 contract opened at 15,395 RMB/ton, with a peak of 16,110 RMB/ton during trading. As of June 18th, it closed at 14,915 RMB/ton.
On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. At the beginning of the month, adhesive negotiations in Thailand's production areas were slow, and raw material prices remained high. In addition, the alternating rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan in China caused some areas to be hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a relatively tight supply of natural rubber in the domestic market. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 18th, the price of Thai glue is 77.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; The continuous rainfall in the Banna production area of Yunnan, China, still affects the progress of rubber cutting.
On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 525,800 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the bonded zone was 76100 tons, a decrease of 4.42%; The general trade inventory was 449,700 tons, a decrease of 0.78%.
However, since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand has been dragged down by the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and natural rubber prices have fallen from high levels. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.
Market forecast: Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, the inventory reduction of natural rubber ports is relatively slow. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.
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