Since June, the BR market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 18th, the price of BR in the East China region was 15.570 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.50% from 14.090 RMB/ton in early June. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for BR is strong; The production of BR continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has recently declined, with weak purchases of BR and high levels of butadiene futures, driving a strong market atmosphere.
Since June, the price of butadiene has risen significantly, with strong support for the cost of BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene was 13,650 RMB/ton, an increase of 14.95% from 11,875 RMB/ton in early June.
Since June, the production of domestic BR plants has continued to remain at a low level, and as of June 18th, the production of domestic BR has been around 5.3%. The Shunding unit of Qilu Petrochemical started operating at a load of 50% from early June; Starting from June 4th, the 30000 ton/year rare earth BR/nickel based high cis BR flexible device of Yanshan Petrochemical has been gradually shut down; Starting from June 5th, the 100,000 ton/year high Shun BR plant of Yangzi Petrochemical will gradually shut down; The 80,000 ton/year nickel based high Shun BR plant of Heze Kexin Chemical Co., Ltd. has been restarting since June 4th; After the restart of the 30,000 ton/year high Shun BR plant at Jinzhou Petrochemical on May 30th, it has produced high-quality products and maintained normal operation; Shandong Yihua Rubber Technology Co., Ltd.'s 100,000 ton/year (nickel/neodymium series) BR plant was shut down for maintenance starting from May 22, 2024, and has been restarted since June 14.
Demand side: Since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand will face some drag on the BR market. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.
From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for BR is strong; The production of BR remains low, and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies have seen a significant decline in production, which has dragged down the production of BR. Overall, the BR market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production. We still need to pay attention to the downstream stocking situation in the future.
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