Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 15th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 9,042 RMB/ton to 9,000 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 18.92%. The domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Followed up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continued, and the market trading center was deadlocked.
Analysis review
On the supply side and in terms of equipment: Although Inner Mongolia Sanwei, Chongqing Jianfeng, and Great Wall Energy facilities had been restarted one after another, Tianye, Tunhe, and Hemei facilities were still under maintenance, and the overall market supply increase was limited. The supply side support was still acceptable, and the supplier's intention to maintain prices continued. The supply side of BDO had favorable factors for the market.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the operating rate had decreased narrowly, and overall supply had remained stable. However, the export of downstream maintenance and supporting calcium carbide had intensified market observation, and calcium carbide enterprises were showing high enthusiasm for raising prices. Raw material methanol: The methanol market was experiencing weak consolidation. As of 3:00 pm on July 19th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2,500 RMB/ton. The cost side impact of BDO was mixed.
On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG and GBL/NMP industries had experienced a decline in production, and the utilization rate of other downstream production capacity was average, continuing to follow the pace of rigid demand. The transmission of industrial chain costs was not smooth, with multi-dimensional contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. The demand side of BDO had bearish factors for the market.
Market outlook
The supply of goods will continue to increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. However, in the state of low profit or loss in the factory, the supplier's intention to maintain prices will continue. The actual demand downstream of the terminal follows lightly, and the transmission of industry chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment when entering the market. SunSirs’ analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.
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